Aliko Dangote and President William Ruto broke ground on 30 September on a refinery in Kenya’s Lamu county designed to process 700,000 barrels of crude a day. Cost estimates range from $16 billion to $20 billion, about 70% of it borrowed, with completion targeted for around 2030. Dangote has set aside a 30% stake for East African states, whose markets import almost all their fuel. Kenya would gain a regional energy hub, while fuel importers and Uganda’s own planned refinery face a large new competitor. Supply is the main risk, as full output needs more regional crude than is produced today; a residents’ land case returns to court on 14 October.