The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on 15 October that most sub-Saharan African central banks may need to tighten policy as inflation rises. Its regional outlook sees median inflation climbing from 3.4% in 2025 to 4.3% in 2026 and 5% in 2027, while interest payments already absorb about 12% of government revenue. Uganda raised its policy rate by 2.25 points to 12% on 14 October to halt the shilling’s slide, and South African Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago said on 15 October that underlying inflation measures point to an upturn. Oil above $100 and US Treasury yields near 5.2% are reversing last year’s easing, raising borrowing costs for governments and companies.
Sources
- Reuters via TimesLIVE: https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/africa/2026-10-15-africas-economic-resilience-masks-rising-inflation-threat-imf-warns/
- Agence Ecofin: https://www.ecofinagency.com/news/1510-59797-imfs-montfort-mlachila-africas-growth-cushions-should-not-be-mistaken-for-a-permanent-solution
- GhanaWeb: https://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/business/Sub-Saharan-Africa-faces-rising-inflation-despite-4-5-growth-forecast-IMF-2056811
- CNBC Africa (Reuters), Uganda: https://www.cnbcafrica.com/2026/uganda-central-bank-hikes-key-lending-rate-by-225-basis-points
- NTV Uganda: https://ntv.co.ug/business/bank-of-uganda-raises-central-bank-rate-to-12
- CNBC Africa (Reuters), Kganyago: https://www.cnbcafrica.com/2026/south-africas-central-bank-governor-kganyago-sees-upside-risks-to-inflation