The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on 8 October that El Niño could reach record strength, with sea temperatures in the key Pacific zone forecast at about 3.7°C above normal in October–December. The previous record, 2.6°C, was set in 2015–16, when drought cut harvests across southern Africa; the WMO puts the chance of El Niño lasting until February at near 100%. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) has its highest level of concern for Angola, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe, while the Greater Horn of Africa is forecast to be wetter than normal. A failed rainy season would raise maize prices and import bills and cut hydropower from the Kariba dam.
Sources
- Daily Maverick: https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2026-10-08-el-nino/
- Anadolu (A News): https://www.anews.com.tr/world/2026/10/08/el-nino-forecast-to-reach-record-strength-as-global-heat-weather-risks-rise-wmo
- WMO: https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-set-become-very-strong-raising-risks-of-extreme-weather-2027