The most important developments in sub-Saharan Africa. Six days a week.
The World Bank raised its 2026 growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa to 4.3% on 6 October, 0.3 percentage points above its April projection, after growth of 4.1% in 2025. Its twice-yearly Africa's Pulse report upgraded nearly three-quarters of the region's economies, including Nigeria, Angola, Ethiopia and Zambia, and found that public debt has stabilised at about 57% of gross domestic product (GDP). The Bank expects median inflation to rise from 3.7% to 5.5% this year as fuel, fertiliser and food prices climb. Income per person is set to grow by only 1.8%, so faster growth will do little for households, and about half of the region's countries remain in debt distress or at high risk of it.
Senegal told external creditors on 6 October that it aims to reach an agreement in principle with official lenders and bondholders by December, Reuters reported, citing three sources. Talks under the G20 Common Framework would run with both groups in parallel, not in sequence as in Ghana and Zambia, and would cover about $1.7 billion in total return swaps but exclude debt in CFA francs. The government reached a staff-level agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on 1 September after the discovery of about $13 billion in hidden debt. A quick deal would shorten a long period of uncertainty over Senegal's finances, but holders of its $5.2 billion in Eurobonds could face losses.
Mali's army, backed by Russia's Africa Corps, took back the northern city of Kidal on 6 October without a fight after the separatist Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) pulled out. The FLA had held the city since 25 April; its spokesman called the withdrawal a strategic retreat and blamed air strikes by the army and its Russian allies, a claim that has not been verified. The army first retook Kidal from separatists in November 2023 and lost it again during this year's rebel and jihadist offensives. The recapture gives the junta a symbolic gain after months of setbacks, but it deepens its reliance on Russian forces while jihadist groups still hold much of the rural north and centre.
Oil above $100 a barrel is now hitting currencies and business activity, not only pump prices, in African fuel importers. South Africa's petrol price passed 30 rand a litre for the first time on 7 October, and Uganda's purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell from 55.0 to 53.0 in September as firms cited fuel and transport costs. Uganda's shilling hit a record low beyond 4,000 to the dollar on 5 October as energy importers bought dollars, while the Central African Republic raised diesel prices by 12% on 1 October, saying it could no longer fund subsidies. Costlier imports raise inflation and make rate cuts less likely, while oil exporters such as Nigeria and Angola gain revenue.
Kenya confirmed its first Ebola case on 6 October: a Kenyan man who had lived in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DR Congo) and died in a Nairobi hospital. Health Cabinet Secretary Aden Duale said the man travelled by road to Kampala on 2 October and flew to Nairobi the next day; 28 contacts are under monitoring, and the flight's passengers and crew are being traced. DR Congo's outbreak, its deadliest on record, has caused more than 8,000 cases and 4,000 deaths, and Uganda was declared free of the disease only in August. A case in East Africa's main air hub raises the risk of spread through Uganda and Kenya and of disruption to travel, tourism and cross-border trade.
The National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) said on 6 October that it will sell $840 million at foreign exchange auctions in the second quarter of the 2026/27 fiscal year, up from $500 million in the first. It will hold six fortnightly auctions of $140 million between 13 October and 22 December, against $125 million per round before. Banks bid less than the amount on offer at both September auctions, and the birr cleared at 160.23 to the dollar on 23 September, against about 57 before the currency was floated in July 2024. A larger, regular dollar supply gives importers more predictable access to foreign currency and should narrow the gap with the parallel market.
Cobalt hydroxide prices fell about 31% in the third quarter despite the export quotas the Democratic Republic of Congo (DR Congo) uses to restrict supply. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence data, published on 1 October, show the spot price dropped from about $56,300 a tonne in early July to $39,140 on 29 September, while DR Congo's exports rose from 17,053 tonnes in the first quarter to 24,086 tonnes in the second. Kinshasa banned cobalt exports in February 2025 and then replaced the ban with quotas, which allow 96,600 tonnes this year. Lower prices cut the export earnings and royalties DR Congo hoped to raise, and suggest that the quotas now exceed demand from battery makers.
DR Congo's Mines Minister Louis Watum Kabamba launched an airborne geological survey programme on 6 October to map the country's mineral potential. Spanish geophysics firm Xcalibur will survey Kongo Central, Kwango, Kwilu and the Greater Kasai region for the national geological service, raising modern mapping coverage from 22.27% to 46.1% of the country. DR Congo is the world's largest cobalt producer and Africa's leading copper producer, but less than 10% of its territory has been explored in detail. Better data would lower exploration risk for investors and strengthen the government's hand in talks with mining companies and with partners such as the United States that seek critical minerals.
Zambia's government said on 6 October that it will sign a five-year health agreement with the United States worth $1.5 billion in US funding, after clauses requiring the sharing of medical specimens and health data were removed. Health Minister Roma Chilengi said US funding will fall each year while Zambia raises its own health spending, for a total of $3.6 billion from both governments; signing is set for 8 October. The deal falls under Washington's America First Global Health Strategy, which replaces grants from the US Agency for International Development (USAID) with bilateral agreements. Zimbabwe halted talks on a similar deal over control of health data, so Zambia's revised terms could become a reference for other African governments.
Sudan earned a record $2.292 billion from official gold exports in the first nine months of 2026, the state-owned Sudanese Mineral Resources Company said on 6 October. Its managing director, Mohamed Taher Omer, said revenue beat projections by 31% and output exceeded the annual target by 5%, while the minerals minister said first-half exports alone matched the whole of 2025. Sudan produced about 70 tonnes of gold last year but formally exported only about 14 tonnes, as smugglers took the rest across its borders. Gold is the army-backed government's main source of foreign currency in its war with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), and higher formal exports give it more dollars for fuel and food imports.
