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Ethiopian federal forces have pushed more than 150 kilometres into Tigray and retaken three towns about 39 kilometres from the regional capital, Mekelle, Al Jazeera reported on 30 September, citing government-linked sources. The claims cannot be verified, as phone and internet links to Tigray remain cut. The advance follows the recapture of Alamata, while Tigrayan fighters have opened a front in Afar, where a local group says 150,000 people have fled. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) declared "full solidarity" with the government, while Qatar urged a ceasefire. A battle for Mekelle would test whether Eritrea, which Ethiopia accuses of backing the rebels, stays out of the war.
An International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) tribunal ruled on 30 September that Ghana's $196.5 million tax assessment on Tullow Oil did not breach the company's petroleum agreements. Ghana's Revenue Authority puts Tullow's total liability, including penalties and interest, at $393 million; the London-listed firm's shares fell sharply. The dispute concerned tax on insurance payouts Tullow received between 2016 and 2019. The ruling strengthens Ghana's hand with oil companies but hits a producer that relies on Ghanaian cash flow to service its debts. The tax authority has promised a settlement that will not disrupt operations, while Tullow still faces another Ghanaian arbitration and a tax claim in Kenya.
Aliko Dangote and President William Ruto broke ground on 30 September on a refinery in Kenya's Lamu county designed to process 700,000 barrels of crude a day. Cost estimates range from $16 billion to $20 billion, about 70% of it borrowed, with completion targeted for around 2030. Dangote has set aside a 30% stake for East African states, whose markets import almost all their fuel. Kenya would gain a regional energy hub, while fuel importers and Uganda's own planned refinery face a large new competitor. Supply is the main risk, as full output needs more regional crude than is produced today; a residents' land case returns to court on 14 October.
The opposition Movement for the Liberation of São Tomé and Príncipe – Social Democratic Party (MLSTP-PSD) won 24 of 55 seats in the 27 September parliamentary election, provisional results showed on 30 September. The governing Independent Democratic Action (ADI) fell to 23 seats from the 30 it won in 2022, while a coalition of smaller parties took six. The vote follows the president's dismissal of Prime Minister Patrice Trovoada in January 2025. With 28 seats needed for a majority, the six-seat coalition now holds the balance, extending the pattern of power alternating between the two main parties. Turnout was low, with abstention at nearly 63%.
Zambia began talks with an International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission on 30 September on a new programme to replace the $1.7 billion arrangement that expired in January. The mission runs until 10 October, and the finance ministry wants a deal before the end of the year. The government says the new programme should move from stabilisation towards private-sector growth, exports and jobs, targeting average growth of 7% over three years. A fresh IMF anchor would reassure bondholders who took losses in Zambia's debt restructuring and support the kwacha and borrowing costs. The IMF said it was premature to speculate on timing or outcomes.
