The most important developments in sub-Saharan Africa. Six days a week.
The Tigray Peace Forces (TPF), a pro-government militia, said on 2 October it had captured Milazat, about 20 kilometres south-east of Mekelle, the capital of Ethiopia's Tigray region. Its commander claimed the forces of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) had been wiped out; the claim cannot be verified while communications with Tigray remain cut. Residents said banks and shops in Mekelle had closed and some senior TPLF leaders had left. A battle for the city would push more civilians into Afar and Amhara and raise pressure on Eritrea, which shares an 800-kilometre border with Tigray. Watch whether federal forces enter Mekelle or negotiate its handover.
Ethiopia and Egypt each expelled a diplomat on 2 October with 48 hours to leave, a day after Ethiopia's break with Eritrea. Ethiopia gave no reason; an Egyptian government source called the move "unjustified" and accused Addis Ababa of blaming outsiders for its internal crises. Ethiopia accuses Egypt, Eritrea and Sudan of backing the rebel alliance led by the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), which all three deny; Cairo and Addis Ababa also dispute the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. The African Union Commission urged the three states to talk. Open diplomatic conflict with two neighbours raises the risk that outside states are drawn into Ethiopia's war.
Sudan's army said on 2 October it had captured al-Mazroub, which it called the largest stronghold of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in North Kordofan. The town, about 90 kilometres west of Bara, links North and West Kordofan; videos reviewed by Radio Tamazuj appeared to show army and allied Darfur Joint Forces fighters there, while the RSF did not comment. The army says it has recently taken 11 areas in North Kordofan, including Um Sharo and Sodari. Holding al-Mazroub would let it threaten RSF supply routes towards Darfur and open a path into West Kordofan. The RSF's response around El Obeid will show whether the front holds.
Deaths in the Democratic Republic of Congo's Ebola outbreak passed 4,000 on 2 October, with 4,018 deaths among about 8,300 confirmed cases in seven provinces, official figures showed. In Ituri, a patient transit centre burned down after soldiers entered the Kigonze displacement camp, whose roughly 19,000 residents fled, leaving most Ebola contacts there untraced. The outbreak, detected in May and caused by the Bundibugyo strain, is the deadliest in the country's history. Displaced people carrying the virus into North Kivu, where six cases are confirmed in M23-held areas, would put Uganda and Rwanda at greater risk. The violence threatens the slowdown officials had reported in Ituri.
Guinea-Bissau's military authorities have barred former President Umaro Sissoco Embaló from returning on 4 October, citing national security and public order. Embaló, in Morocco since soldiers seized power in November 2025, planned to come home to stand in the presidential and legislative elections set for 6 December. The junta keeps a ban on political gatherings, and an August referendum approved a constitution that expanded presidential powers. Excluding a former head of state fits a pattern in West Africa's military-led states, where promised elections come with tight limits on who may compete. A court ruling on Embaló's candidacy will show how open the vote will be.
Nigeria's public servants began a three-day warning strike on 2 October across federal, state and local governments, called by the Joint National Public Service Negotiating Council (JNPSNC). The unions want petrol cut to 500 naira (about $0.38) a litre, a wage award and minimum-wage talks before 2027; the Nigeria Labour Congress says petrol costs 1,430 naira ($1.08) or more in major cities. The JNPSNC said the government ignored its 21 September letter to President Bola Tinubu. The strike adds to labour pressure over fuel costs since the 2023 subsidy removal, ahead of the 2027 elections. Watch whether unions call an indefinite strike after 4 October.
Nigeria's Stanbic IBTC Bank Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 56.4 in September from 54.3 in August, its highest in more than four and a half years, the survey showed on 2 October. Output grew at the fastest rate since February 2022 in all four sectors, while a separate Central Bank of Nigeria survey showed a fourth month of expansion. Firms cited stronger demand and new products, but input-cost inflation hit a three-month high on fuel, food and raw-material prices. Stronger activity supports the bank's 22 September rate cut, though rising costs could limit further easing. September inflation data, due in mid-October, is the next test.
Société Générale has agreed to sell its 60.22% stake in Société Générale Ghana, with Morocco's Attijariwafa Bank buying 55.22% and Ghana's Social Security and National Insurance Trust (SSNIT) the remaining 5%, the bank said on 1 October. The deal still needs approval from the Bank of Ghana and other authorities. The French group has already sold its units in Burkina Faso and Mauritania as it withdraws from the continent. Attijariwafa gains a 40-branch network, extending Moroccan banks' push into West Africa, while SSNIT, the state pension fund, raises its stake. French lenders' retreat leaves African groups to take over their customers and markets.
The European Commission has suspended €18 million ($21 million) of 2026 budget support to Sierra Leone because Freetown has not extradited Jos Leijdekkers, a Dutch cocaine trafficker convicted in the Netherlands and Belgium, Dutch Justice Minister David van Weel said on 1 October. About $26 million planned for 2027 could also be withheld. EU Commissioner Magnus Brunner said a day later that the suspension was due to "technical reasons", and Information Minister Chernor Bah blamed procedural issues with a financing agreement. If confirmed, tying EU budget support to a single criminal case would set a precedent for other aid recipients. Watch whether Freetown arrests Leijdekkers, who is believed to have lived there since 2023.
