The most important developments in sub-Saharan Africa. Six days a week.
Ethiopian federal forces and allied fighters entered Mekelle, the capital of Tigray, on 4 October after the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) announced its withdrawal. The army had retaken the city's airport a day earlier; the TPLF seized it on 23 September, when the latest fighting began. The TPLF called the retreat a "tactical decision" to spare the city and said its regional government would operate from elsewhere and keep fighting. A shift to guerrilla war in rural Tigray would prolong displacement into Afar and Amhara and keep the Eritrean border tense. Watch who runs Mekelle: federal officials have promised a new interim administration and regional elections within months.
The leaders of Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan issued a joint declaration in New Alamein, Egypt, on 4 October. It says only coastal states should govern the Red Sea, rejects "unilateral measures" that harm downstream users of the Nile, opposes recognition of Somaliland and sets up a joint regional security mechanism. The text does not name Ethiopia, but its points address Addis Ababa's search for sea access and its Nile dam, days after Ethiopia broke with Eritrea and expelled an Egyptian diplomat. The meeting widens the 2024 alignment of Egypt, Eritrea and Somalia to Sudan's army-led government, leaving Ethiopia facing a coordinated group of neighbours while it fights at home.
The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and allied Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) said on 4 October they had seized positions at Al-Kadalou, about 60 kilometres from Ed Damazin, the capital of Sudan's Blue Nile state. The alliance claimed eight positions and 20 combat vehicles, while the army said it had repelled an advance in the Minza and Bashkarkat areas; neither claim can be verified. Officials said drones targeted the governor's residence in Ed Damazin on 3 October. Fighting near the Ethiopian border and the Roseires dam opens a south-eastern front that could push refugees into Ethiopia and South Sudan. The alliance names Ed Damazin and Roseires as its next targets.
South Sudan's President Salva Kiir travelled to Nairobi on 4 October for talks with Kenya's President William Ruto, his first foreign trip since he dissolved the transitional unity government on 22 September. He installed a caretaker administration and dropped all five vice-presidents. His office said the talks would cover the general elections set for 22 December, regional security and infrastructure, including the refinery Kenya has launched in Lamu. Kiir is seeking regional backing for what would be South Sudan's first elections since independence in 2011. Kenya's support carries weight because Nairobi hosts the stalled Tumaini peace talks with armed groups that rejected the 2018 peace deal.
Algeria's President Abdelmadjid Tebboune said in a television interview broadcast on 3 October that he sent fighter jets to Niger because he saw the 28–29 August mutiny in Niamey as a provocation against Algeria. Algeria deployed four Sukhoi Su-30 jets and a refuelling aircraft at Niger's request on 30 August; Tebboune noted that Niger's prime minister was in Algiers when the mutiny began. The deployment is a rare Algerian military operation abroad and marks a thaw with Niamey after the 2025 drone dispute with Mali strained Algeria's ties with the Sahel juntas. It gives Algiers a security role alongside Russia, the juntas' main military partner.
Fuel shortages are spreading across army-held Sudan, pushing up transport and food prices. Black-market petrol costs about 60% more than the official price, Sudan Tribune reported, while long queues have formed in Khartoum and other states. Traders blame the long shutdown of the al-Jaili refinery north of Khartoum, a lack of foreign currency and higher world oil prices; a central bank rule requiring importers to deposit gold has also left supply to a few firms. Dearer fuel feeds inflation, weakens the Sudanese pound and raises the cost of moving troops and aid. Prime Minister Kamil Idris has ordered more deliveries, calling the crisis an "economic war".
South Africa's state utility Eskom has proposed a two-year pilot tariff for cryptocurrency miners and other flexible users that would sell surplus power about 27% below last year's average industrial price. The energy regulator is taking comments until 23 October and plans to decide on 7 December; two mining firms have shown interest in about 10 megawatts, possibly rising to 500. Eskom expects surplus generation as rooftop solar spreads and industrial demand falls, while better plant performance has cut its diesel spending by about 80% this financial year. Selling idle capacity would support Eskom's revenue, but smelters and other industrial users paying full tariffs could press for similar terms.
