The most important developments in sub-Saharan Africa. Six days a week.
Ethiopia and Egypt each expelled a diplomat on 2 October with 48 hours to leave, a day after Ethiopia's break with Eritrea. Ethiopia gave no reason; an Egyptian government source called the move "unjustified" and accused Addis Ababa of blaming outsiders for its internal crises. Ethiopia accuses Egypt, Eritrea and Sudan of backing the rebel alliance led by the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), which all three deny; Cairo and Addis Ababa also dispute the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. The African Union Commission urged the three states to talk. Open diplomatic conflict with two neighbours raises the risk that outside states are drawn into Ethiopia's war.
Guinea-Bissau's military authorities have barred former President Umaro Sissoco Embaló from returning on 4 October, citing national security and public order. Embaló, in Morocco since soldiers seized power in November 2025, planned to come home to stand in the presidential and legislative elections set for 6 December. The junta keeps a ban on political gatherings, and an August referendum approved a constitution that expanded presidential powers. Excluding a former head of state fits a pattern in West Africa's military-led states, where promised elections come with tight limits on who may compete. A court ruling on Embaló's candidacy will show how open the vote will be.
Nigeria's public servants began a three-day warning strike on 2 October across federal, state and local governments, called by the Joint National Public Service Negotiating Council (JNPSNC). The unions want petrol cut to 500 naira (about $0.38) a litre, a wage award and minimum-wage talks before 2027; the Nigeria Labour Congress says petrol costs 1,430 naira ($1.08) or more in major cities. The JNPSNC said the government ignored its 21 September letter to President Bola Tinubu. The strike adds to labour pressure over fuel costs since the 2023 subsidy removal, ahead of the 2027 elections. Watch whether unions call an indefinite strike after 4 October.
The European Commission has suspended €18 million ($21 million) of 2026 budget support to Sierra Leone because Freetown has not extradited Jos Leijdekkers, a Dutch cocaine trafficker convicted in the Netherlands and Belgium, Dutch Justice Minister David van Weel said on 1 October. About $26 million planned for 2027 could also be withheld. EU Commissioner Magnus Brunner said a day later that the suspension was due to "technical reasons", and Information Minister Chernor Bah blamed procedural issues with a financing agreement. If confirmed, tying EU budget support to a single criminal case would set a precedent for other aid recipients. Watch whether Freetown arrests Leijdekkers, who is believed to have lived there since 2023.
