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Credit ratings are improving across sub-Saharan Africa: on 7 October Moody's turned its outlook for the region's governments to positive, citing falling debt and borrowing needs. Eight of the 25 sovereigns it rates, including Nigeria, South Africa, Ghana, Angola and Zambia, now have positive outlooks, against four negative ones: Mauritius, Gabon, Mali and Senegal. The agency expects government debt to fall from 62.4% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025 to 56.6% in 2027, with Zambia and Ethiopia seeing the largest declines. Upgrades would lower borrowing costs for governments returning to Eurobond markets, although Moody's names high interest bills, weak revenue and a renewed rise in inflation as risks.
Mozambique's government on 8 October set out a plan to settle arrears of up to 81.3 billion meticais ($1.27 billion), including 38.9 billion meticais in unpaid bills to suppliers. Finance Minister Carla Louveira said old debts will be validated within 90 days, small suppliers will receive 6 billion meticais a year, and no spending will be allowed without budget cover. Wages and debt service absorb 86% of monthly revenue, and the government is negotiating a new loan programme with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which plans another mission in November. Clearing arrears would ease cash shortages for local firms, while tighter spending controls are likely conditions for IMF support.
Burkina Faso's cabinet on 8 October adopted a bill banning the privatisation of strategic state companies and allowing the state to take stakes in any company it deems strategic, together with the 2027 budget bill. The budget plans revenue of 4,220 billion CFA francs ($7.5 billion), up 13% on the revised 2026 forecast, and spending of 4,839 billion, leaving a deficit of 2.9% of GDP. The government raised its 2026 growth forecast to 6% on higher gold output and approved import rules to protect local makers of soap, detergent and tomato paste. The measures extend the military government's drive for state control of the economy, which has already taken over several gold mines, and may deter private investors.
