The most important developments in sub-Saharan Africa. Six days a week.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on 8 October that El Niño could reach record strength, with sea temperatures in the key Pacific zone forecast at about 3.7°C above normal in October–December. The previous record, 2.6°C, was set in 2015–16, when drought cut harvests across southern Africa; the WMO puts the chance of El Niño lasting until February at near 100%. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) has its highest level of concern for Angola, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe, while the Greater Horn of Africa is forecast to be wetter than normal. A failed rainy season would raise maize prices and import bills and cut hydropower from the Kariba dam.
The West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) more than doubled its trade surplus to 1,817.7 billion CFA francs (about $3.1 billion) in the second quarter of 2026, from 812.3 billion a year earlier, according to Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO) figures reported on 9 October. Exports rose 15.6% and imports 4.6%, led by gold, cotton, cocoa, rubber and petroleum products, while industrial output grew 5.7% on oil in Côte d'Ivoire, Niger and Senegal and gold in Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire and Mali. Cocoa output still fell 2.6% in the 2025/26 season. Stronger export earnings support the union's reserves and the CFA franc peg as higher oil prices lift import bills.
Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema told the new National Assembly on 9 October that the 2027 budget would contain financing measures the country had "never seen before", along with laws to ease investment inflows. Opening the first session of the 14th parliament, he called targets of 3 million tonnes of copper a year, 10,000 megawatts of power and 10 million tonnes of maize "within reach", citing a maize harvest that rose from 2.1 to 5.1 million tonnes this year. The speech sets out an investment-led programme for his second term. Investors will look for detail on how the budget is financed while Zambia negotiates a new International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme.
