The most important developments in sub-Saharan Africa. Six days a week.
High oil prices are straining fuel budgets and supply across Central Africa. Gabon's council of ministers said on 8 October that keeping pump prices stable cost 30 billion CFA francs (about $51 million) in September, twice the peak during the Ukraine war, and President Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema ordered a review of the subsidy. In the Central African Republic, ten union confederations demanded wage rises or a reversal of the 1 October increase that took diesel from 1,250 to 1,400 CFA francs a litre, while Burundi cut weekly petrol rations for private vehicles from 30 to 20 litres. Governments are caught between rising subsidy bills and unrest over higher pump prices.
Ethiopia accused Eritrea of an "all-out invasion" in a letter to the UN Security Council made public on 9 October, saying Eritrean troops had advanced up to 60 kilometres into the Tigray region. Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos demanded their withdrawal and invoked Ethiopia's right to self-defence, while Eritrea's Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel said Ethiopia was waging an unprovoked war aimed at seizing the port of Assab. The exchange follows the federal army's capture of Mekelle, Ethiopian drone strikes on Eritrean troops near Adigrat and the end of diplomatic ties. Taking the dispute to the Security Council moves the conflict closer to an open interstate war on the Red Sea coast.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on 8 October that El Niño could reach record strength, with sea temperatures in the key Pacific zone forecast at about 3.7°C above normal in October–December. The previous record, 2.6°C, was set in 2015–16, when drought cut harvests across southern Africa; the WMO puts the chance of El Niño lasting until February at near 100%. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) has its highest level of concern for Angola, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe, while the Greater Horn of Africa is forecast to be wetter than normal. A failed rainy season would raise maize prices and import bills and cut hydropower from the Kariba dam.
Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading (NBET) began paying 729 billion naira (about $547 million) of legacy debt to power generators and gas suppliers on 9 October. The payment, made through a second series of bonds, includes 402 billion naira in cash and the rest in non-cash bonds, and covers 11 generating companies against eight in the first round in January. It brings the total raised under the government's 4 trillion naira power-sector bond programme to about 1.23 trillion naira, while the industry puts its overall claims at 6.8 trillion. Clearing arrears helps generators pay for gas and maintenance, but new debts will build up unless tariffs and bill collection cover costs.
The West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) more than doubled its trade surplus to 1,817.7 billion CFA francs (about $3.1 billion) in the second quarter of 2026, from 812.3 billion a year earlier, according to Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO) figures reported on 9 October. Exports rose 15.6% and imports 4.6%, led by gold, cotton, cocoa, rubber and petroleum products, while industrial output grew 5.7% on oil in Côte d'Ivoire, Niger and Senegal and gold in Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire and Mali. Cocoa output still fell 2.6% in the 2025/26 season. Stronger export earnings support the union's reserves and the CFA franc peg as higher oil prices lift import bills.
Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema told the new National Assembly on 9 October that the 2027 budget would contain financing measures the country had "never seen before", along with laws to ease investment inflows. Opening the first session of the 14th parliament, he called targets of 3 million tonnes of copper a year, 10,000 megawatts of power and 10 million tonnes of maize "within reach", citing a maize harvest that rose from 2.1 to 5.1 million tonnes this year. The speech sets out an investment-led programme for his second term. Investors will look for detail on how the budget is financed while Zambia negotiates a new International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme.
Water stored in Mare-aux-Vacoas, the main reservoir of Mauritius, has fallen to 35.9% of capacity from 88.6% a year ago, L'Express reported on 9 October, cutting its daily supply from about 110,000 to under 61,000 cubic metres. All reservoirs were 57.6% full against 88.1% a year earlier, and some households in the central highlands have gone more than three days without running water. The price of heavy fuel oil burned by the Central Electricity Board (CEB) rose 57.5% between January and September, while 100 megawatts of capacity is under maintenance ahead of a summer peak of up to 610 megawatts. The twin shortages raise the risk of power cuts and higher costs for the state utility.
