The most important developments in sub-Saharan Africa. Six days a week.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on 15 October that most sub-Saharan African central banks may need to tighten policy as inflation rises. Its regional outlook sees median inflation climbing from 3.4% in 2025 to 4.3% in 2026 and 5% in 2027, while interest payments already absorb about 12% of government revenue. Uganda raised its policy rate by 2.25 points to 12% on 14 October to halt the shilling's slide, and South African Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago said on 15 October that underlying inflation measures point to an upturn. Oil above $100 and US Treasury yields near 5.2% are reversing last year's easing, raising borrowing costs for governments and companies.
Ethiopian federal forces and the allied Tigray Peace Force (TPF) entered the city of Aksum, the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project (ACLED) reported on 15 October, while Eritrean troops withdrew across the border through Zalambessa. TPF spokesperson Solomon Hailemariam said Eritrean units had suffered heavy losses, a claim Eritrea's Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel rejected as false. The advance follows the capture of Mekelle, Adwa and Adigrat earlier this month; on 14 October US Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to de-escalate. With Ethiopian armour near the border, the risk of a direct clash between the two armies is rising, which would threaten Red Sea trade routes and Ethiopia's corridor to Djibouti.
Somalia's electoral commission announced on 15 October that elections for both chambers of parliament will be held on 15 April 2027 and the presidential vote on 15 May 2027. Commission chair Abdikarim Ahmed Hassan said the presidential term runs from the date of swearing-in; President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's government declared a transition period through a constitutional amendment in May, which the opposition boycotted. Former presidents Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo and Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed rejected the timetable, and Sharif warned of parallel elections and possible civil conflict. A contested vote could split the federal government and its allies in the regions, weakening the campaign against al-Shabaab. It could also complicate donor and International Monetary Fund support.
Cocoa processing in Côte d'Ivoire is expanding: grinders in the Gepex exporters' group processed 157,446 tonnes in the third quarter, 40.3% more than a year earlier. Data published on 15 October also showed European grindings up 3.2% to 348,215 tonnes, their first annual rise since the second quarter of 2024, and Asian grindings up 29.2% to a record 233,767 tonnes. Over the past decade, part of the processing once done in Europe has moved to Côte d'Ivoire, the world's largest producer. Local grinding keeps more value and jobs in the country, but grinders will compete with exporters for a main crop already threatened by dry weather. Firmer global demand from a smaller crop would support cocoa prices and farm incomes.
