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An International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) tribunal ruled on 30 September that Ghana's $196.5 million tax assessment on Tullow Oil did not breach the company's petroleum agreements. Ghana's Revenue Authority puts Tullow's total liability, including penalties and interest, at $393 million; the London-listed firm's shares fell sharply. The dispute concerned tax on insurance payouts Tullow received between 2016 and 2019. The ruling strengthens Ghana's hand with oil companies but hits a producer that relies on Ghanaian cash flow to service its debts. The tax authority has promised a settlement that will not disrupt operations, while Tullow still faces another Ghanaian arbitration and a tax claim in Kenya.
Aliko Dangote and President William Ruto broke ground on 30 September on a refinery in Kenya's Lamu county designed to process 700,000 barrels of crude a day. Cost estimates range from $16 billion to $20 billion, about 70% of it borrowed, with completion targeted for around 2030. Dangote has set aside a 30% stake for East African states, whose markets import almost all their fuel. Kenya would gain a regional energy hub, while fuel importers and Uganda's own planned refinery face a large new competitor. Supply is the main risk, as full output needs more regional crude than is produced today; a residents' land case returns to court on 14 October.
